The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has not only reshaped the political landscape of Eastern Europe but has also led to significant human suffering. From the wrongful detention of activists like Iryna Danilovich to the broader implications of territorial control, the situation is far from simple. This explainer explores the challenges Ukraine faces, the international perspectives surrounding potential peace negotiations, and why any potential deal with Russia could set a dangerous precedent for global stability.

The Case of Iryna Danilovich: A Symbol of Ukraine’s Struggle

Iryna Danilovich’s case exemplifies the personal and political toll of the ongoing conflict. A nurse and human rights activist, she was detained by Russian authorities in Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Her arrest in April 2022, under dubious charges of possessing explosives, marked the beginning of a prolonged ordeal that continues to impact her health and freedom. Despite facing severe torture during detention, including physical abuse, her fate is tied to larger questions about Ukraine’s territorial integrity. As she languishes in a notoriously harsh Russian penal colony, her experience mirrors that of thousands of Ukrainians who have been detained under Russian occupation. Ukraine’s claim to its occupied territories—like Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk—remains firm, with the belief that these areas will eventually be restored to Ukrainian control.

The International Dimension: Trump’s Peace Proposal

The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict has been further complicated by international actors. Recently, former US President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine might not regain much of its occupied territory in peace negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His comments, made after a phone conversation with Putin, sparked significant backlash in Ukraine, where many fear that the country could lose more ground in exchange for a fragile peace. This proposal raises doubts about the viability of peace talks that exclude Ukrainian voices. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded firmly, emphasizing that Ukraine must be directly involved in any discussions about its future. The idea of striking deals between the US and Russia, without Ukraine’s participation, is a non-starter for many Ukrainians who are determined to reclaim their territory.

Ukraine’s Position: A Fight for Sovereignty and Territory

Ukraine’s stance on the war is clear: any peace deal that would result in territorial concessions is unacceptable. Ukrainians, both in positions of power and on the ground, believe that losing territory to Russia would be a betrayal of the sacrifices made by the military and civilians alike. With nearly 20% of Ukraine’s land currently under Russian control, the fight for sovereignty has become a matter of national pride and survival. In cities like Kyiv, the sentiment is widely shared. As Ukrainian student Nazar Voloshenko puts it, losing areas like Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Crimea would be disastrous for the country. The thought of negotiating away parts of Ukraine’s rightful land is seen as a step back in the long-term struggle for freedom and independence.

The Repercussions of History: Russia’s Track Record of Broken Deals

Ukraine’s distrust of Russia is not without cause. Over the decades, Russia has repeatedly violated international agreements, especially those related to Ukraine’s sovereignty. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and the UK, stands as a stark example of this betrayal. Similarly, after illegally annexing Crimea and provoking conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Russia signed multiple ceasefire agreements, only to violate them soon after. For many in Ukraine, the pattern of Russian actions speaks volumes about the likelihood of a fair peace agreement. The fear is that any negotiation, particularly those conducted without Ukraine’s involvement, will only be another attempt by Russia to solidify its territorial gains at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty.

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The Human Cost: The Suffering of Millions Under Occupation

The human toll of Russia’s occupation is immense. According to Ukrainian officials, around 6 million people, including 1 million children, currently live in Russian-occupied territories. These areas have been subject to human rights abuses, including unlawful detentions, forced conscription, sexual violence, and the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Despite numerous reports by the UN and human rights organizations, Russia continues to deny these accusations. The repression is particularly visible in Crimea, where Russia has systematically targeted communities that oppose its control. The plight of activists like Danilovich is a reminder of the broader strategy Russia employs to stamp out dissent and enforce its rule. This same strategy has been repeated across other occupied regions, leaving a trail of devastation and trauma.

The Dangers of Appeasement: Why Negotiating with Russia Could Set a Dangerous Precedent

One of the greatest fears in Ukraine is that any peace deal struck under external pressure could set a dangerous precedent. Volodymyr Sablyn, a Ukrainian battalion commander, warns that conceding territory to Russia would embolden the aggressor and pave the way for future invasions of other countries. The message it sends is clear: Russia can invade, occupy, and annex territory without facing significant consequences. Such a deal would not only undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty but also signal to other nations that territorial integrity can be compromised through force. This could lead to further regional instability and open the door for future aggression from Russia or other powers. The potential for conflict would not end with Ukraine; it could spark a wider geopolitical crisis, particularly if Russia’s imperial ambitions extend beyond Ukraine’s borders.

The Road Ahead for Ukraine

Ukraine’s struggle is one of survival, both in terms of territorial integrity and national identity. The conflict with Russia has been a harsh reminder of the importance of defending sovereignty in the face of aggression. The possibility of peace talks between the US and Russia, excluding Ukraine, presents a dangerous scenario that could lead to further losses for the country. Any peace deal that sacrifices Ukrainian territory would not only be a betrayal of the people who have fought and died to defend it, but it would also undermine the principles of international law and security. Ukraine’s path to peace must involve its full participation, and any agreement must prioritize the restoration of its territorial integrity. Otherwise, the cycle of aggression and occupation could continue, not just in Ukraine, but in other regions around the world.

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