Just as South Asia grapples with long-standing border issues between India and Pakistan, a similar storm seems to be brewing in the Caucasus region. Armenia and Azerbaijan are once again at the brink of a potential conflict as cross-border firing incidents intensify almost daily.
Locals on the Armenian side allege that Azerbaijani troops regularly fire shots around 10 PM, often into the air. However, some of these bullets have reportedly struck homes near the border, though no injuries have been confirmed so far.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan denies any such actions and instead accuses Armenian forces of violating the ceasefire.
Decades-Long Dispute with Global Implications
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is deeply rooted, with their 1,000-kilometer-long shared border heavily militarized since the early 1990s. Over the past 40 years, the two nations have fought two major wars, leading to lasting instability in the region.
This region is strategically crucial as it serves as a vital corridor for oil and gas pipelines heading to Europe. It’s also a geopolitical hotspot, with countries like Russia, Iran, and Turkey keeping a close watch.
With current tensions rising rapidly, experts fear that a new war could erupt, bringing devastating consequences to both nations and beyond.
Peace Talks Stalled Amid Rising Ceasefire Violations
Earlier this year in March, Armenia and Azerbaijan appeared to make progress toward peace, agreeing on a draft framework for a treaty expected to be signed by 2026. The proposed agreement includes demarcation of the disputed border.
However, Azerbaijan has made it clear that it will only confirm the treaty once Armenia amends its constitution. Since then, ceasefire violations have resumed, shaking hopes of long-term peace.
Armenia’s Military Overhaul After Past Defeats
After suffering defeats in 2020 and 2023, Armenia has significantly increased its defense investments. The country has procured advanced weaponry from both India and France to bolster its military capabilities.
Among the weapons Armenia has acquired from India are the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launcher, Akash surface-to-air missile system, and Kalyani Group’s artillery guns. These systems are expected to play a key role in Armenia’s strategic defense if a conflict reignites.
Read More: The Next World War Won’t Be Fought for Oil — It’ll Be for This
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