From the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the growing animosity between Iran and Israel, tensions are at an all-time high on a global scale. Pakistan is just one of many countries that are rapidly increasing their military might in this unstable environment. According to a recent intelligence report, Pakistan is secretly working on a potent missile that could reach the US.
U.S. Intelligence: Pakistan Developing Intercontinental Missile
China is helping Pakistan covertly develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, according to classified U.S. intelligence provided to Foreign Affairs. This missile could target cities thousands of kilometres away, including those in the United States, if it were successful.
A Game-Changer in South Asian Military Strategy
Pakistan insisted for years that the only goal of its nuclear program was to oppose India. Its weapons development up to this point has focused on short- and medium-range missiles, like the Shaheen-III, which can hit most of India with its 2,700-kilometer range.
An ICBM, however, alters the situation. These missiles can travel across continents and oceans with a minimum range of 5,500 km and some can reach over 10,000 km.
| Missile Type | Estimated Range | Capability |
|---|---|---|
| Shaheen-III | ~2,700 km | Reaches Indian cities |
| Proposed ICBM | 5,500+ km (est.) | Could target U.S. |
U.S. May Label Pakistan a Nuclear Adversary
The report states that if Pakistan acquires ICBM capability, Washington may declare it a “nuclear adversary.” This term is currently reserved for Russia, China, and North Korea — nations considered direct threats to U.S. national security.
“If Pakistan achieves ICBM capabilities, the U.S. will have no choice but to reclassify it as a nuclear adversary,” one U.S. official told Foreign Affairs.
Why ICBMs Are a Global Red Line
ICBMs are among the most strategic and dangerous weapons on Earth. Their long range, speed, and ability to carry nuclear or conventional warheads make them a defining factor in global military deterrence.
| Weapon Type | Use Case | Global Reach |
|---|---|---|
| Tactical Missiles | Battlefield use | Limited |
| SRBM/MRBM | Regional threats | Medium |
| ICBM | Strategic global deterrent | High |
China’s Role in Pakistan’s Missile Ambitions
The report indicates that China is providing technological support to Pakistan’s missile development under the radar. This potential Beijing-Islamabad axis could mark a new phase in the region’s strategic balance — especially in response to India’s growing naval and missile capabilities after its recent “Operation Sindoor”.
From India-Focused Policy to Global Threat?
Pakistan’s traditional missile doctrine focused solely on countering Indian threats. However, the development of an ICBM reflects a shift in intent and strategy, positioning Pakistan as a global military stakeholder rather than a regional actor.
ICBM Capability Would Break Pakistan’s Current Limits
Currently, Pakistan has no missile with the capability to reach Europe or North America. But with an ICBM, it could expand its strategic reach dramatically — raising concerns in NATO and other allied defense circles.
What This Means for Global Security
This move could destabilize more than just South Asia. It may invite sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or even strategic countermeasures from the U.S. and its allies, pushing Pakistan into a more precarious position on the global stage.
A New Arms Race in the Making?
If this intelligence is accurate, the South Asian region could be heading into an arms race not seen since the Cold War — but this time with nuclear-capable ICBMs in play. The U.S., China, India, and Pakistan would all be in the game.
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