CPEC Crosses a Dangerous New Line—and India Is Not Having It
In a move laden with geopolitical consequences, China and Pakistan have agreed to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, a development that could reshape power dynamics in South and Central Asia.
The announcement came after a high-level trilateral meeting in Beijing involving Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. The three nations reaffirmed their commitment to “regional peace, stability and development.”
This marks the first trilateral dialogue since India’s Operation Sindoor, launched after the Pahalgam terror attack. Notably, India has opposed CPEC since its inception, citing sovereignty violations due to its passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
What is CPEC?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in April 2015, CPEC began with $46 billion in investments and has since grown to over $62 billion—equivalent to nearly 20% of Pakistan’s GDP.
Designed to plug Pakistan’s infrastructure gaps, CPEC aims to connect China’s Xinjiang province to Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea via a network of roads, railways, and energy projects.
Why Pakistan Relies on CPEC
CPEC promised a lifeline to Pakistan’s chronic power shortages, once marked by widespread blackouts. China built coal-fired power plants, helping stabilize energy supply—though at a cost.
After COP26, China reversed its overseas coal investment policy, shelving multiple CPEC power projects. This sudden shift hit Pakistan hard, as its power sector is still heavily coal-dependent.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s mounting external debt and ballooning trade deficits worsened as it imported vast quantities of materials for CPEC, contributing to a $6.3 billion IMF bailout request.
Importantly, Islamabad shoulders 80% of the liabilities, raising alarms about long-term debt sustainability. China has refused to restructure repayments, wary of setting a global precedent.
What CPEC’s Entry into Afghanistan Means
Extending CPEC to Afghanistan signals China’s intent to deepen regional integration under its economic and strategic umbrella. The plan includes:
• Extending the ML-1 railway line into Afghan freight networks
• Highways via Torkham and Spin Boldak crossings
• Access to Afghanistan’s lithium and rare earth reserves
• Energy pipelines linking Iran and Central Asia via Afghan territory
• Dual-use infrastructure that could support military logistics
India’s Longstanding Opposition
India has consistently opposed CPEC since 2013, calling it an infringement of sovereignty due to its construction in PoK. New Delhi views the project as part of China’s “string of pearls” strategy to encircle India militarily and economically.
Concerns also extend to Gwadar Port, which India fears could become a Chinese naval outpost, and to the tightening China-Pakistan military alliance, which includes fighter jets, missiles, and warships.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in 2022:
“Any participation of third countries in CPEC directly infringes on India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Why the Afghanistan Angle Alarms New Delhi
The timing of Afghanistan’s inclusion is especially significant.
The Taliban government recently condemned the Pahalgam terror attack and dismissed Pakistan’s claims of Indian missile strikes on Afghan soil. This led to a rare political thaw between India and Afghanistan, with both sides acknowledging shared concerns.
China and Pakistan’s CPEC outreach is seen as a strategic snub to India—a message that Beijing and Islamabad can shape regional alliances, including with the Taliban, to counter India’s influence in Central Asia.
In essence, the move:
- Undermines India’s growing Central Asian outreach
- Reinforces China-Pakistan-Taliban alignment
- Challenges India’s aspirations to be a regional and global power
The Strategic Bottom Line
As CPEC moves into Afghanistan, India faces a renewed challenge on its western front—one that blends infrastructure, diplomacy, and military strategy. While China seeks to tighten its grip on Eurasian trade corridors, India must now navigate a more complex regional chessboard where old alliances are shifting and new fault lines are emerging.
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