America’s Next Military Collapse? Inside the Iraq Withdrawal Countdown

After the chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, where the Taliban seized power almost overnight, global security experts are now watching Iraq closely. Tensions are building as Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful Iran-backed Shia militia, issues a clear ultimatum to U.S. forces: leave Iraq — or face violent consequences.
As the September 2025 withdrawal deadline approaches, the situation is becoming increasingly volatile. Kataib Hezbollah has made it clear that any delay or deception by Washington will be met with force.

“We’re Watching Closely”: Kataib Hezbollah’s Open Threat to U.S. Forces

In a strongly worded statement released Monday evening, Abu Ali Al-Askari, a senior official in Kataib Hezbollah, said his group is monitoring U.S. forces at all major bases including Ain al-Asad Airbase and Camp Victory, and expects a full and irreversible withdrawal.

“We are watching every move,” Al-Askari said. “Our patience is not infinite. If the Americans don’t leave, they’ll face fire.”
He urged Iraqi factions and leadership to act together to stop what he called “American stalling tactics,” and to ensure that the U.S. sticks to its exit plan.

U.S. Agrees to Withdraw — But Doubts Remain

Under growing pressure from Iraqi lawmakers and militia factions, the U.S. agreed to begin withdrawing troops by September 2025. Officially, the U.S. maintains its presence in Iraq to assist in the fight against ISIS. But many Iraqis view the foreign troops as occupiers — and demand they leave.
Iraqi parliament had earlier passed a resolution for U.S. withdrawal, reflecting the widespread public resentment toward foreign military operations in the country.

Will Iraq Collapse Like Afghanistan? Experts Weigh In

Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq has multiple armed Shia factions — many backed by Iran — that already wield considerable power. These groups may not aim to overthrow the government, but they advocate for a religious model of governance and reject Western influence.
Some analysts fear that once U.S. forces are gone, a new power struggle could erupt between these militias and Iraq’s central government — a recipe for long-term instability.

The Shadow of Afghanistan Looms

Security experts point out the eerie parallels with the Afghan crisis. A weak national army, growing influence of ideologically driven militias, and an approaching U.S. withdrawal — it’s a combination that has triggered alarms in Washington and beyond.
If Iraq follows Afghanistan’s trajectory, another U.S. foreign policy disaster may be just months away.

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