The Next Big Earthquake: When and Where Will It Happen?

Have you ever thought about what would happen if the ground suddenly cracked open in the middle of the night and everything around you was destroyed? A catastrophic earthquake so powerful that the mere thought of it sends chills down your spine. Have you ever wondered when and where the biggest earthquake will strike? It’s certain that the largest earthquake will eventually occur, but the big question is: when and where will it happen? Let’s explore this question and try to find the answer.

Hollywood’s ‘The Next Big One’ and the Himalayas

Hollywood has often promoted the idea of “The Next Big One” as a huge earthquake in the United States, particularly along the San Andreas Fault. However, many believe that an even more destructive earthquake could strike the Himalayas, potentially affecting a large part of Northern India.

History’s Biggest Earthquake

One of the largest earthquakes in recent history struck Myanmar, with its epicenter near Mandalay. The tremors were felt in neighboring countries like Thailand, and there were fears of hundreds of casualties and billions of dollars in damages. This earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.7 on the Richter scale, reminded people of the power of nature and the importance of being prepared for emergencies. It also brought to mind another earthquake that is often talked about—one that hasn’t yet occurred, but is expected to happen sometime in the future. While we don’t know exactly when it will strike, scientists are certain that it will.

The Largest Earthquake Ever Recorded

The largest recorded earthquake occurred in 1960 in Valdivia, Chile, with a magnitude between 9.4 and 9.6 on the Richter scale. It lasted about 10 minutes and caused massive tsunamis that reached as far as Hawaii, Japan, the Philippines, and even Australia and New Zealand. The death toll is estimated to be between 1,000 and 6,000, but the exact number remains unknown.

Another catastrophic earthquake struck the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004. This earthquake, with a magnitude of 9.2 to 9.3, triggered deadly tsunamis that claimed over 200,000 lives across several countries, including India. This remains the deadliest earthquake of the 21st century. On March 11, 2011, the Tohoku-Sendai earthquake in Japan, measuring 9.1 on the Richter scale, caused significant problems at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

Read More: Houthi Missiles Target Israel: A Clash of Defense Titans – Arrow vs THAAD

The Original ‘Big One’ and the San Andreas Fault

The term “Big One” was originally used in popular culture (primarily in the U.S.) to describe a massive earthquake expected along the San Andreas Fault. This fault is a crack in the Earth’s crust where two blocks of rock move against each other, causing earthquakes. The idea was first proposed in 1953 by two geologists, Mason Hill and Thomas Dibble, who published a paper suggesting that large earthquakes could occur along the fault, which stretches over 1,000 kilometers in California.

Further studies predict that earthquakes of magnitude 7-8 could occur along this fault, potentially destroying famous cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Movies About the ‘Big One’

Several movies have been made about the “Big One,” including the 1974 film Earthquake, starring Charlton Heston, which introduced a new technique called “Sensurround” that simulated earthquake tremors in movie theaters. In 1990, the TV movie The Big One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake further popularized the term. In 2015, the movie San Andreas with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson focused on the catastrophic effects of an earthquake along the San Andreas Fault. All these films centered around the destruction caused by an earthquake in Los Angeles.

Where Will the ‘Big One’ Come From?

While most popular stories still associate the “Big One” with the San Andreas Fault, recent geological studies suggest that the true “Big One” may actually occur along a fault line further north, known as the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This fault stretches along the coastal region from Vancouver in Canada to Northern California. Experts fear that an earthquake with a magnitude between 8 and 9.2 could trigger massive tsunamis that could submerge entire cities. Although it may not be as powerful as the 1960 Chile earthquake, the Cascadia earthquake would affect densely populated urban areas in the U.S., such as Seattle, Salem, and parts of Washington, covering over 100,000 square miles with more than 5 million people.

Potential Destruction from the ‘Big One’

Experts believe that the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake could lead to thousands of deaths, millions of people being displaced, and the destruction of large parts of infrastructure. There is also concern that the death toll could be higher, as rescue efforts might be hindered due to the destruction of communication systems, roads, and other vital infrastructure in affected areas. This earthquake could also impact Canada and other regions.

When Will the ‘Big One’ Happen?

Geologists are certain that the “Big One” will affect us, but there is no agreement on when it might occur. According to Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues at Oregon State University, there is a 37% chance that a devastating earthquake will strike the Cascadia Subduction Zone by 2060. Interestingly, scientists have been able to determine that the last major earthquake in this region occurred in the early 1700s, causing destruction not only in North America but also in Japan due to the resulting tsunami. While some people dismiss these predictions as alarmist, it is clear that no one denies the possibility of a major earthquake occurring in the region—it’s just a matter of when.

Could India Be Affected by the ‘Big One’?

While Hollywood has focused the idea of “The Next Big One” on the U.S., many believe that a similarly destructive earthquake could strike the Himalayas, affecting large parts of Northern India, including densely populated cities like Chandigarh and Delhi, as well as neighboring Nepal. This earthquake, potentially with a magnitude of around 8, could cause even more destruction and loss of life than the Cascadia earthquake. However, no specific dates are available for this event.

Another area that could face a significant earthquake is the Marikina Valley Fault System near Luzon in the Philippines. This region, which covers about 3,000 square kilometers and includes the capital city of Manila, is at risk of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 on the Richter scale, potentially causing over 100,000 fatalities. Once again, while no exact timeline exists, the ticking of the seismic clock continues.

Read More: India, Canada, Mexico Brace for Impact as U.S. Imposes Tough New Tariffs