In a momentous upheaval for the Middle East, Islamist rebels in Syria have declared the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad following their successful capture of the capital, Damascus. This pivotal event forced Assad to flee, effectively bringing an end to his family’s nearly half-century grip on power, which has persisted through more than 13 years of devastating civil war. The abrupt downfall of Bashar al-Assad not only marks a significant turning point for Syria but also represents a substantial setback to the influence wielded by Russia and Iran—two key allies that have steadfastly supported Assad during crucial junctures of the conflict.

The collapse of the Assad dynasty is poised to drastically alter the power dynamics in the region, as various regional and global powers scramble to fill the void left in the wake of this dramatic regime change. While Western nations and Arab states, alongside Israel, may mobilize efforts to counteract Iran’s influence in Syria, it appears unlikely that they would endorse the establishment of a radical Islamist regime to take the place of Assad, as highlighted in a report by CNN. For Iran, the loss of Syria could be devastating, potentially unraveling its so-called Axis of Resistance, which comprises a network of allied states and militant groups crucial to its regional strategy.

What Contributed to Asaad’s Downfall?

In recent developments, rebels have reportedly been emboldened to launch a significant offensive in Aleppo, a pivotal city in the ongoing conflict, following a series of setbacks faced by Hezbollah at the hands of Israel. This strategic weakening has notably diminished Iran’s influence in the region, leaving Asaad’s regime vulnerable. Hadi al-Bahra, a prominent Syrian opposition leader representing various anti-Assad factions, shared his insights during an interview with Reuters.

He observed that the ongoing Lebanese conflict has led to a substantial reduction in Hezbollah forces, which in turn, has stripped Asaad of crucial support that had previously helped to sustain his government. Al-Bahra pointed out that the Iran-backed militias, once a formidable force, are now grappling with diminishing resources. Compounding these challenges, he noted, is the fact that Russia, which has been a key ally in providing air support for Assad’s troops, is increasingly distracted due to its own pressing issues related to the conflict in Ukraine. This combination of reduced support from allies and increasing competition from rebel forces has significantly weakened Asaad’s position.

What’s At Stake?

Iran

For years, Syria has served as a critical platform for Iran to amplify its regional influence, primarily through a network of proxy groups embedded within the country’s predominantly Sunni population. Tehran, in concert with its significant ally, Hezbollah, has played a pivotal role in bolstering the forces of the Syrian government, aiding President Bashar al-Assad in reclaiming territory that had been lost to various insurgent factions. The Islamic Republic has mobilized its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to provide crucial military guidance and support, which has been instrumental in ensuring the Assad regime’s survival against a backdrop of intense conflict.

However, the dynamics shifted dramatically following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East last October, triggered by a surprise offensive by the Palestinian militant organization Hamas against Israel. This development prompted Hezbollah to withdraw its troops from Syria, redirecting its focus and resources towards the escalating confrontation with Israel. Reports indicate that Iran has been utilizing established supply routes within Syria to transport weapons to its allied forces engaged in combat against Israel. The potential fall of significant urban centers, such as Aleppo and other cities adjacent to Lebanon, poses a serious threat to these vital supply lines, positioning Iran in a precarious situation. Experts assert that the loss of Syria would represent “a huge blow” to Iran’s strategic interests.

“The investment Iranians have poured into Syria is daunting; it not only represents a crucial land corridor to Lebanon but also signifies a historical alliance with the Assad regime that has endured throughout the lifetime of the Islamic Republic,” stated Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, during a discussion with CNN.

The situation is further complicated by the anticipated changes in global diplomacy. According to prevailing analysis, Iran is likely aiming to leverage its proxies as bargaining chips in potential negotiations with the forthcoming administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. “If Iran finds itself losing too much ground in the region, will they emerge too weakened to negotiate effectively? Conversely, if they choose to resist and attempt to retain their foothold, could they escalate the conflict to a point where diplomatic solutions become impossible?” pondered Mr. Parsi, highlighting the delicate balance Iran must navigate in its regional strategy.

Lebanon

Lebanon, a country deeply intertwined with the geopolitical dynamics of the region, finds itself in a precarious situation as the conflict in Syria evolves. Experts warn that the turmoil next door is poised to have significant repercussions for Lebanon, where a fragile truce between Hezbollah—a formidable proxy of Tehran—and Israel teeters on the brink of collapse.

Hezbollah, once instrumental in propping up the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, now faces its own challenges. The ongoing skirmishes with Israel have drained its resources and weakened its influence. The situation grows increasingly dire as Syrian insurgents threaten to breach the Lebanese border. Should this occur, Hezbollah’s vital logistics and supply chain from Iran—flowing through Syria and Iraq—could be severed, leaving the organization isolated and unsupported within Lebanon’s borders.

Antoine Habchi, a Lebanese Member of Parliament representing the Bekaa Valley, highlighted the strategic implications of the Syrian-Lebanese border in the current conflict. He stated, “One of the key factors fueling the events we witness today in Syria is the urgent need to control these borders, ensuring that strategic weapons do not flow into Lebanon.” Such measures underscore the heightened concerns about military supplies that could bolster Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Moreover, Habchi pointed to Turkey’s active role in these dynamics, emphasizing its efforts to prevent the Lebanese border from becoming a conduit for the transfer of advanced weaponry via Syria. “Even President Assad, despite being the figurehead of the Syrian government, does not fully control the movements within his own territory, which is largely dominated by various factions and international forces, including those from Iran,” Mr. Habchi added, painting a picture of a fragmented power structure where authority is contested and borders are not securely managed.

Turkey

Turkey has been actively working to enhance its influence over President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, with the aim of bolstering its position within the region. A key component of this strategy is to exert tighter control over Kurdish separatist groups situated along the porous Turkish-Syrian border, thereby facilitating the establishment of a secure buffer zone that would mitigate potential threats to its territorial integrity. Over the past decade, Ankara has taken the lead in representing various opposition factions in negotiations with Russia, which ultimately culminated in a critical ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and the opposition forces in 2020.

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Despite its historical support for the Syrian opposition, Turkey has not dismissed the possibility of reconciling with the Assad administration. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently voiced his staunch opposition to Kurdish nationalism, underscoring his determination to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This far-left militant and political organization, which has waged a tumultuous campaign against the Turkish state for over thirty years, remains a focal point of Ankara’s security strategy.

In addition to these geopolitical ambitions, Turkey has reportedly set its sights on maintaining control over the oil-rich territories in northern Syria, where some areas function with a degree of autonomy. This objective further underscores Ankara’s multifaceted approach to its involvement in the Syrian conflict, intertwining its national security interests with economic considerations in a region marked by complexity and volatility.

Israel

The ongoing power struggle in Syria has placed Israel in a precarious situation. President Bashar al-Assad, who has long regarded Israel as an adversary, has not presented a direct threat to Tel Aviv. Over the past year, he has chosen to remain largely unresponsive to the frequent Israeli strikes across various locations in Syria.

Nevertheless, Assad’s regime has allowed its territory to be utilized by Iran, facilitating the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, the militant group based in Lebanon. Interestingly, the potential fall of Assad is not viewed as a relief for Israel. The leading faction in the Syrian rebellion, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is headed by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a former fighter affiliated with al-Qaeda, whose extremist ideology firmly opposes Israel’s existence.

“Israel finds itself in a complex predicament, caught between Iran, its proxies, and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” explained Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer, in an interview with CNN. “For Israel, none of the available options are particularly favorable. However, it’s worth noting that, at this moment, the influence of Iran and its proxies appears to be waning, which is a positive development,” he remarked.

The resurgence of hostilities in the region has granted Israel the opportunity to intensify its air assaults on Syrian soil. Recently, suspected Israeli fighter jets targeted the Mazzeh district in Damascus, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, these aircraft are believed to have bombed the Khalkhala air base located in southern Syria, which had been vacated overnight by the Syrian army. Regional security sources indicate that a series of airstrikes—at least six—were launched on the prominent air base in northern Suweida, where a significant cache of rockets and missiles, left behind by Syrian forces, is stored.