Climate Change Alert: Planet Nears Critical Threshold With 12-Month Heat Surge

Climate researchers recently revealed that a relentless streak of record-breaking heat, which began last summer, has continued for a full year on a global scale. The released data from European climate scientists demonstrated that May marked the 12th consecutive month in which average global temperatures exceeded all recorded observations since 1850, and likely any prolonged period in the last 100,000 years. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, global temperatures averaged 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels over the past year.

This concerning trend brings Earth closer to a critical threshold that the world’s nations vowed not to surpass under the landmark 2015 Paris agreement. The agreement aims to restrict Earth’s temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over preindustrial levels to mitigate the severe impacts of global warming. While the planet surpassing this threshold for one year does not signify a permanent shift, experts caution that similar occurrences are likely to happen again, possibly within a few years.

The World Meteorological Organization has issued a warning, stating that there is a high probability that temperatures will rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels for at least one year within the next five years. This prolonged period of warmth has taken scientists by surprise, leading to a call by the United Nations for a ban on fossil fuel companies’ advertisements and a push for the public to reduce their usage of these products.

During a special address in New York, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “For the past year, every turn of the calendar has turned up the heat. Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening.” The increase in temperatures has been attributed to the El Niño climate pattern and the long-term impact of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.

A decade ago, it was believed that the likelihood of the planet warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2020 was almost negligible. However, scientific estimates now suggest that there is an 80% chance of this increase occurring by 2028.

Since last June, global temperature records have been shattered by significant margins due to the emergence of a powerful El Niño, which has been releasing vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean. This periodic climate pattern involves the accumulation of warmer-than-average waters along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific. This results in the transfer of warmth and moisture into the atmosphere, leading to extreme heat waves, floods, and droughts worldwide.

In July, temperatures surpassed the 1.5-degree C warming benchmark for the entire month, marking the first occurrence of such an event. This warming trend persisted, with global surface-air temperatures last month averaging 1.5 degrees C higher than the 1850-1900 global average, according to Copernicus.

Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, emphasized the unprecedented nature of this trend. He pointed out that without action to reverse it, the string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold.

The burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This leads to the trapping of heat, preventing it from escaping into space. According to a recent study conducted by a group of 57 scientists, human activities were found to be responsible for 92 percent of the observed warming in 2023, which marked the hottest calendar year on record for the planet. The rate of warming in the past decade has been described as “unprecedented in the instrumental record.”

Global temperature records are derived from various sources, including ground sensors with a history dating back nearly two centuries, satellite observations from more recent decades, and evidence from historical records and geological analyses that span back further in time.

Although this data may not provide precise insights into past temperatures on specific days or over extended periods many thousands of years ago, it does offer confidence in the understanding that the planet has not undergone such rapid and sustained warming since the conclusion of the last ice age around 125,000 years ago.